How to Read Betting Lines - The Point Spread & Money Line

A Comprehensive PvP Analysis on the GBL Season 3 Move Rebalance

Hello again, fellow travelers! It's that PvP article guy (LXP and Community Day/Elite TM analysis), back with a look at the seemingly regular move shakeup we just got with the kickoff of GO Battle League's third season. It's not the seismic shift we've had during other past rebalances, but there IS still plenty to discuss!
A disclaimer: I am examining these strictly from a PvP usability standpoint. Yes, there ARE some impacts in terms of raids and PVE damage rankings and all, but there are a myriad of other folks that already look into all that. I am a PvP analyst, so that's what I'll be focusing on here. One more note: while I usually try and bring in at least some information on shieldless and 2v2 shielding scenarios, I chose to stick with just the standard 1v1 shielding matchups in the sims below, partly because it still tells the story fine on its own and represents the pros and cons of the changes well, and also partly to spare you from this dragging on any longer than it already does! 😅
So without further ado, let's dive in, starting with the fast moves and working our way down. Buckle up!

SNOWBALL FIGHT!!

Arguably the biggest winner of all in this shakeup is a Pokémon that has long been the butt of jokes: Abomasnow. It has an intriguing Grass/Ice typing combination that seems like it should be good (resistances to Electric, Grass, Ground, and Water), but in the end is much more curse than blessing (vulnerable to seemingly everything under the sun: Bug, Fighting, Flying, Poison, Rock, Steel, and of course doubly weak to Fire). Add to that the fact that the best charge moves it could muster were Energy Ball (which isn't bad) and the slow Outrage or Blizzard, and not even a good energy generating move like POWDER SNOW could get there fast enough to overcome its many Achilles' heels, relegating it to typically being a clumsy Razor Leafer.
But Aboma just got a DOUBLE shot in the arm. First of all, Powder Snow got a straight buff in this update, going from the 2.0 Damage Per Turn and 4.0 Energy Per Turn it generated before to now 2.5 DPT and the same 4.0 EPT, making it a clone of the awesome Vine Whip and trailing just behind top notch moves Shadow Claw and Volt Switch with their 4.0 EPT and 3.0 DPT. No other move generates as much energy as Powder Snow while dealing any higher than 2.0 DPT, putting the new and improved Powder Snow in pretty elite company. Shoutout to fellow analyst u/ytxpikachu25 for pointing out that this buff means Aboma's Powder Snows each deal one more damage than before to Galarian Stunfisk, Bastiodon, Steelix, Cherrim, Escavalier, and Shiftry, among others.
The other good news for Abomasnow is that it also recieved a new charge move in this update, and it's just what it needed most: an inexpensive move to pair with Energy Ball. Say hello to the only non-Castform recipient of Ice WEATHER BALL. Put that together with the improved Powder Snow and the steady Energy Ball from before, and what do you get? A genuine contender. That's an improvement of 20% to its previously best win total, specifically eight new wins--Cresselia, Dewgong, AS Tropius, Venusaur, Shiftry, Cherrim, Galvantula, and HaunteGengar--while still beating everything pre-buff "Obama" already could. Snowbama has finally arrived to occupy a chunk of the Great League stage.
But Weather Ball is also a boon to Razor Leaf Abomasnow, improving on its previous best by adding several notable new wins like Cresselia, Probopass, Razor Leaf Tropius, and big bad Meganium, as well as greatly improving on wins versus Haunter and Sableye (30 and 50 more HP, respectively, after beating them with IWB). Ice Weather Ball immediately becomes one of the best moves in the game to pair with Razor Leaf, being spammy enough for even slow-charging Razor Leaf to get there--often even in multiples!--and offering very good coverage and giving RL Obama some good versatility.
And there's more... there is also Shadow Abomasnow to consider, which seems to be all the rage so far in this early GBL season. It's both a little better and a little worse than regular Aboma. Sticking with Razor Leaf Abomashadow for the moment, new wins appear against Froslass, Ferrothorn, and Galvantula, though at the cost of giving up wins against Haunter and Hypno that non-Shadow Aboma gets. Digging a little deeper, while both regular and Shadow win against Cresselia, Mantine, Probopass, Tropius and others, regular Abomasnow gets out with more HP, often 20+ more, while Abomashadow doesn't escape with more remaining HP often at all, and even when it does, rarely for more than 5 or so more HP.
And likewise with Powder Snow. Here, you can see right away that the case for Abomashadow is a little shakier, as it shows one less win than normal PS Aboma, but once again there's more to see when you peel back the layers. Shadow gets unique wins over Lapras, Toxicroak, and Galarian Stunfisk, all big names to be sure. But it also loses to Dewgong, Hypno, Cherrim, and Mew, all of which non-Shadow Aboma can take out.
Personally, I still give the (slight) edge to non-Shadow Aboma in Great League, so don't fret if you don't have a good Abomashadow!
But there is STILL more. Because while Abomasnow tops out below 2400 CP, it is now even a potential option in Ultra League, beating most notable Grasses, Charmers, Dragons (Dragonite AND potentially both Giratinas), Ghosts (Gengar and suddenly relevant Drifblim), and of course Waters like Swampert, Empoleon, Blastoise, and Feraligatr thanks to Energy Ball. Not bad! Maxing an Abomashadow would be painful, but it is worth noting that doing so could net you Cresselia and Snorlax (but you give up Granbull and Empoleon). I'm not saying a maxed Aboma is something I would outright recommend for Ultra League, but there are many worse ideas.
So what's the verdict?
In Great League, while it has been a laughing stock many times over, Abomasnow may now get the last laugh. With either fast move, Energy Ball and the new Ice Weather Ball have taken Aboma from plodding and unintimindating to spammy and terrifying overnight. You have probably run into at least one in this young GBL season already. It won't be the last. Abomasnow is now here to stay. Good news if you haven't invested yet: you can run with a cheaper, non-Shadow one and still be just fine, IMO. Check the slight differences above, but either snow white or dirty snow Aboma work well.
Other Benefactors?
While only Abomasnow recieved Ice Weather Ball, there are many Pokémon that have Powder Snow and stand to benefit.

THROW A HEX ON THE WHOLE FAMILY

Yes, this 40-year-old white boy is throwing out a Puff Daddy (and The Notorious B.I.G. and Lil' Kim) lyrical reference... what of it? 😎
Powder Snow got buffed, but it's not the only fast move that did. Two moves recieved a straight buff to their energy generation, from 3.67 EPT to a simpler 4.0 EPT, and one of those, as you likely surmised by now, is long-forgotten Ghost move HEX. While still strictly inferior to well-known Ghost move Shadow Claw (which has the same energy generation but deals 50% more damage--3.0 rather than Hex's 2.0--per turn), this improvement at least makes Hex usable, now sporting the same stats as Fury Cutter and Spark. Not the greatest of moves, fair enough, but viable for anything that has Hex but cannot use Shadow Claw instead.
And even this small tweak is a boon to several Pokémon, propelling them up the ranks. Probably the biggest beneficiary is Drifblim. A standout star early in the now-ending Silph Arena Season 2, back then Blim relied on big Shadow Balls baited out with a still-useful-then Ominous Wind. Its non-Ghost move, Icy Wind, was buffed in another move update in December, but still mostly ignored until Ominous Wind was itself nerfed in yet ANOTHER move rebalancing in April. (Yeah, Niantic has been pretty rebalance-happy the last few months. 😓) Anyway, all that to say that despite the goings-on with its charge moves, Drifblim never really broke out fully. Hex was (and still is) its only viable fast move, and frankly, that held it back, with it losing several close matchups, just not quite being able to get over the hump and dying before it could let loose with its own winning charge moves.
No longer. With Hex now generating a bit more energy more quickly, Drifblim is rising again. As you would probably expect, it handles Psychics and Fighters and even other Ghosts (not named Haunter) quite capably, though that wasn't always the case... it used to lose to Jirachi and Alolan Marowak with the old Hex stats, but now beats both, and convincingly. It also adds Registeel (granted, the nerf Regi faces don't help, but still), Azumarill, and Ferrothorn to the win column. And again, all that with just a 0.33 boost in energy generation per turn. And Blim still handles Grasses and Swampert and even traditional Flying killer Melmetal as it did before, with each win obviously coming a bit easier (read as: with more remaining HP afterwards) than it did before. And it gets even better, as with very good PvP IVs, Drifblim can even emerge victorious over Skarmory, Galarian Stunfisk, Mantine, and Altaria.
The difference in Ultra League (yes, viable there too!) is a bit more subtle, as the only new win it really picks up against the core meta is Charizard, but as in Great League, it has more HP remaining in its wins, including about 50 more against Ferrothorn and as much as 90 more HP remaining against Cresselia.
So what's the verdict?
Drifblim was arguably better than people gave it credit for already, but the buff to Hex can lead to some HUGE new wins (especially Azu, Regi, and potentially even Altaria) in Great League and more consistency overall. Give it another look... Blim may surprise you, and at least early in the GBL season, your opponent as well!
Other Benefactors?
Not everything that has Hex stands to benefit, as most still have better fast moves, but there are a few dark horses....

AND UH... INFESTATION

Yeah, not even a catchy title for this one, because honestly, the ripples from the buff to INFESTATION are rather small. It got the same treatment as Hex (going from 3.67 EPT to 4.0 EPT, with the same 2.0 DPT), but there just aren't any particularly interesting Pokémon that actually want it, even in its improved state. The top ones that can even HAVE Infestation are Beedrill (wants Poison Jab), Tangrowth (definitely wants Vine Whip, which is strictly better), Cradily and Jumpluff (not since Bullet Seed was buffed!), and then you're into things like Muk and Drapion which I can't see ever choosing Infestation over their other fast moves. This is mostly just a boon to fringe options like Weezing and Garbodor and Swalot. At least that last one has SOME potential... wins over Fighters and Grasses and Darks and Charmers and tanky Psychics and even Azumarill all make you at least go "hmmmm". But truthfully, the buff to Infestation, while certainly welcome, isn't dragging new stuff to the top of the meta anytime soon.

LAND OF THE DEE (BUFF), HOME OF THE BRAVE (BIRDS)

And now probably the move that will cause the most ongoing debate, because while BRAVE BIRD got a huge damage buff (formerly 55 energy for 90 damage, and now 55 for a whopping 130), there is a steep penalty: a drop of three stages (nearly 50%) of the user's Defense stat. I talked about this some recently with the only other move to carry a -3 drop in the game so far: Victini's V-Create. If you can charge two and fire them in close succession, you can drastically mitigate at least the initial pain of so drastically crushing your Pokémon's bulk. But V-Create costs 40 energy... and Brave Bird costs 55, so that's going to be much harder to pull off.
Fortunately, there are a couple birds with fast moves that get there quickly. Honchkrow has Snarl, one of the fastest charging fast moves in the game. And perhaps even better, Honch also has the mighty Sky Attack, which can be sprung a bit earlier to hopefully bait a shield and leave you 10 energy closer to a Brave Bird than double charging BB allows. Sky Attack also obviously has no drawbacks as far as debuffing goes, so you can rely on it more fully and save BB for big moments. There was no reason to ever use Brave Bird before, and so Honchkrow instead relied on Dark Pulse for its second move, which was okay-ish but left Honch as a very fringey option. Now, though, it has the potential to fly quite high with double Flying moves. You might expect Honch to lose a matchup or two by shedding its one and only Dark charge move, but amazingly that's not the case at all... it actually holds or improves upon every win it got with Dark Pulse (meaning has the same HP or more left over at the end), and tacks on wins versus Whiscash, Ferrothorn, Umbreon, Zweilous, Tropius, Toxicroak, and Altaria. That's mighty impressive, and I feel very confident calling Brave Bird--even just the threat of Brave Bird--a clear improvement for Honchkrow in Great League.
And the improvement is even more striking in Ultra League, with Honchkrow again holding the (shaky) line established with Dark Pulse and just adding to it, with Poliwrath, Swampert, Typhlosion, Scizor, Escavalier, Feraligatr, Charizard, and Dragonite all now falling to Honch.
So what's the verdict?
Honchkrow just become meta before our eyes. It may take people a little while to catch on in Great League, but expect to see it start to emerge here and there and possibly be more common by the time Ultra rolls around. It's an expensive investment for Ultra, needing to be leveled into the upper 30s, but it's not a crazy idea to do so.
Other Benefactors?
Part of the reason Brave Bird works so well for Honch is that it has that second, threatening charge move (Sky Attack) that it can mostly rely on and reserve Brave Bird for the most opportune moment. Not all Pokémon have that option, so how does this affect them?
There is one more big bird that gets Brave Bird, but I want to break it down separately... right now!

BRAVIARY IN ACTION

I looked into Braviary shortly after Rufflet arrived in the game, but with pre-tweaked Brave Bird and slow charging Heat Wave as the only moves to go alongside the all-but-necessary Rock Slide, it just didn't do enough to deserve a full writeup. But now it gets CLOSE COMBAT, which makes it at least a little more intriguing should it ever arrive in small enough form to fit in Great League, gaining new wins over Galarian Stunfisk, Swampert, Munchlax, and potentially even Registeel.
But in Ultra League, it makes a few more inroads, with Close Combat bringing home new wins over Empoleon, Obstagoon, and Alolan Muk. Or you can bring the reworked BRAVE BIRD into the mix and reach for Altered Giratina, Typhlosion, and fellow buffed Pokémon Drifblim, while still holding on to Obstagoon and Empoleon (though A-Muk may slip away).
And while Braviary crosses the 3000 CP threshold and can do some work in Master League (and a bit more in ML Premier Cup), now preferring Rock Slide again, it has a rather niche role.
So what's the verdict?
Eh, I like the potential of Braviary in Great League and Master League more than the actual win/loss columns. A Flyer with moves that cover many of its toughest counters (Close Combat for Rocks and Ices) and counter fellow Flyers (Rock Slide, which doubles up on Ices and provides other good coverage) is going to matter at some point, just perhaps more in The Silph Arena than in GBL.
But in Ultra League, there may be something to it, especially in the projected Ultra League Premier Cup. Consider prepping one now to get ahead of the curve. Put those GBL Rufflet candies to good use!

PECK TO THE SIDES, TO THE FRONT, TO THE BACK

🎼 Well, look at old Jim, he's pecking on his back!
Peckin' to me is a lot of fun,
Well, you peck one, and I'll peck one, well, we'll all peck one!
You peck to the east, and then you peck to the west,
🎶 Then you peck, peck, peck 'til you've pecked your best.
Well, then okay, well, a-hey, hey,
We'll peck up, we'll peck up, we'll peck up the floor, Yeah!
Apologies to Cab Calloway, but you knew I'd have to have ONE butchered song in here!
Anyway, let's talk DRILL PECK. It's a very rare move, available on only two viable Pokémon in PvP: Zapdos, and as of the start of Season 3, Empoleon.
Zapdos first. I already wrote about Thunder Shock Zapdos to kick off my early review of Elite TM targets, so rather than rehashing all that, would encourage you to go read that again. I'll wait.
...
...
...you back? Okay, good. Because with Drill Peck now dealing five more damage (65 now, 60 previously) for the same low 40 energy cost, Zapdos is even a little bit better now. Shadow Zapdos in Great League picks up a new win against Medicham (the little bit of extra damage from Drill Peck finishing Cham off before it can reach a second Ice Punch). I didn't see any significant new wins in Ultra or Master (though feel free to point them out if you know of any!), but it does give Zapdos a little more elbow room in some of its wins. I wouldn't say this tweak is now the reason to suddenly start using Zapdos (the fact that you could get Thunder Shock in any league was that reason), but if you already planned to, the improvements to Drill Peck make Zappy a hair better overall.
The bigger story is perhaps Empoleon, you FINALLY gets a coverage move against the Fighters and Grasses that plague it. The best thing it had to combine with Hydro Cannon before was Flash Cannon, which just got nerfed a bit. Drill Peck gives it a new win over Aboma(powder)snow and brings Azumarill to well within the margin of error, though without Flash Cannon you DO lose out on Altaria. in Ultra League, Empie with Drill Peck maintains its current roles and adds wins against Dragonite and now Shadow Abomasnow, while in Master League, Empoleon basically stays where it was, since it usually only needs Hydro Cannon anyway. (Though the hard-to-sim coverage against Fighters is nice to have, so I'd still call this a gain.) Nothing awe-inspiring, but overall, this makes Empoleon a mostly better version of itself.
So what's the verdict?
This isn't a huge change, and that shows in the minutia in the win/loss changes. But it IS a straight upgrade for Zapdos, and gives Empoleon the best move it has had yet to pair with Hydro Cannon. While the loss to Altaria in GL is unfortunate, I think I still give it a thumbs up as the second move to roll with on Empoleon moving forward.
Other Benefactors?
Honestly, not really. Murkrow and Dodrio get Drill Peck, but they still don't really have any play. Zapdos and now Empoleon are the beginning and end of the Drill Peck book.

GOODNESS, GRACIOUS, GREAT BALLS OF... WATER?

So with stats (~125 Attack, 127 Defense, 113 HP) basically the same as Togekiss and overall comparable to things like Venusaur and Cherrim, it's not that Pelipper doesn't have what it takes to hang in there in Great League. The problem has always been the complete lack of any charge moves cheaper than Hurricane and its 65 energy requirement. Sure, Hydro Pump and Blizzard are awesome when they hit, and Wing Attack (3.5 Energy Per Turn) in particular generates energy fast enough to get there at some point, but Pump and Blizzard both cost 75 energy. What Pelipper has so desperately needed is a bait/spam move, and now it finally has it with Water WEATHER BALL. So while Pelipper has been quite pathetic to this point, with WWB, suddenly it doesn't look too shabby. With just Wing Attack and WWB alone (so no baits), it can eliminate Registeel, Mud Boys Swampert and Whiscash, Galarian Stunfisk, Shiftry, A-Wak, Haunter, and basically anything Fighting, a very good start. Bringing in Hurricane (still the best bet as the second move) you can add on things like Azumarill, Lapras, Tropius, and Cherrim, plus Mantine with good bulk IVs. Not the greatest Flying Water type ever--I'd still say, in Great League, that that title rests with Mantine itself)--but Pelipper is legit close to that... and Mantine doesn't usually get Registeel.
You also have the option of Water Gun rather than Wing Attack, losing 0.5 EPT but gaining 0.5 DPT and a steadier dose of Water-type damage, which is worse overall BUT does gain things like Probopass and a better showing against A-Marowak and Registeel while giving up Grasses, Lapras, and Azumarill. Like I said, it's worse, but it IS an option and may be better in certain limited formats like future Silph Arena Cups. For now, just something to keep in mind... towards the back.
So what's the verdict?
Wing Attack/Water Weather Ball/Hurricane Pelipper has some legit play, with some very good wins under its belt, uh, beak, from Mud Boys to Fighters to Ghosts to G-Fisk to Registeel and even some of the biggest of big name Grasses. It's sort of a mini-Mantine, one that may even be better on certain teams and/or in certain more-restricted-than-GBL formats. Recommend looking for a good Wingull and making a Pelipper out of it when you're able.

...AND ALL THE REST

TL;DR

Yes, as it says in the title, this is a comprehensive (read as: LONG) analysis article, but I know some people just want to skip to the end and get a summary. So before you ask, this is for you:
And that's a wrap, folks! I did quite a bit of analysis on all this over the last two days, and while this is an informed opinion, it is still just that: my opinion. Hopefully it helps, but take that for what it's worth!
Alright, I'll bow out now and let you get back to your day and your GBL matches. Thanks for sticking with me through this and other long articles I have written. I appreciate your time and attention, and sincerely hope this assists you in navigating these new GBL waters.
For more PvP tidbits, you can find me on Twitter for near-daily PvP analysis nuggets, or Patreon and its tie-in exclusive Discord servesecret lair. And please, feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll try to get back to you!
Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Thanks again for reading, and catch you next time!
submitted by JRE47 to TheSilphRoad [link] [comments]

Under The Lights: GBL Season 3 Move Rebalance

Hello again, folks! I know I've been somewhat quiet the last couple weeks, but that does mean I've been idle! I'm back with a look at the seemingly regular move shakeup we just got with the kickoff of GO Battle League's third season. It's not the seismic shift we've had during other past rebalances, but there IS still plenty to discuss!
One quick disclaimer before we jump in: while I usually try and bring in at least some information on shieldless and 2v2 shielding scenarios, I chose to stick with just the standard 1v1 shielding matchups in the sims below, partly because it still tells the story fine on its own and represents the pros and cons of the changes well, and also partly to spare you from this dragging on any longer than it already does! 😅
So without further ado, let's dive in, starting with the fast moves and working out way down. Buckle up!

SNOWBALL FIGHT!!

Arguably the biggest winner of all in this shakeup is a Pokémon that has long been the butt of jokes: Abomasnow. It has an intriguing Grass/Ice typing combination that seems like it should be good (resistances to Electric, Grass, Ground, and Water), but in the end is much more curse than blessing (vulnerable to seemingly everything under the sun: Bug, Fighting, Flying, Poison, Rock, Steel, and of course doubly weak to Fire). Add to that the fact that the best charge moves it could muster were Energy Ball (which isn't bad) and the slow Outrage or Blizzard, and not even a good energy generating move like POWDER SNOW could get there fast enough to overcome its many Achilles' heels, relegating it to typically being a clumsy Razor Leafer.
But Aboma just got a DOUBLE shot in the arm. First of all, Powder Snow got a straight buff in this update, going from the 2.0 Damage Per Turn and 4.0 Energy Per Turn is generated before to now 2.5 DPT and the same 4.0 EPT, making it a clone of the awesome Vine Whip and trailing just behind top notch moves Shadow Claw and Volt Switch with their 4.0 EPT and 3.0 DPT. No other move generates as much energy as Powder Snow while dealing any higher than 2.0 DPT, putting the new and improved Powder Snow in pretty elite company. Shoutout to fellow analyst u/ytxpikachu25 for pointing out that this buff means Aboma's Powder Snows each deal one more damage than before to Galarian Stunfisk, Bastiodon, Steelix, Cherrim, Escavalier, and Shiftry, among others.
The other good news for Abomasnow is that it also recieved a new charge move in this update, and it's just what it needed most: an inexpensive move to pair with Energy Ball. Say hello to the only non-Castform recipient of Ice WEATHER BALL. Put that together with the improved Powder Snow and the steady Energy Ball from before, and what do you get? A genuine contender. That's an improvement of 20% to its previously best win total, specifically eight new wins--Cresselia, Dewgong, AS Tropius, Venusaur, Shiftry, Cherrim, Galvantula, and HaunteGengar--while still beating everything pre-buff "Obama" already could. Snowbama has finally arrived to occupy a chunk of the Great League stage.
But Weather Ball is also a boon to Razor Leaf Abomasnow, improving on its previous best by adding several notable new wins like Cresselia, Probopass, Razor Leaf Tropius, and big bad Meganium, as well as greatly improving on wins versus Haunter and Sableye (30 and 50 more HP, respectively, after beating them with IWB). Ice Weather Ball immediately becomes one of the best moves in the game to pair with Razor Leaf, being spammy enough for even slow-charging Razor Leaf to get there--often even in multiples!--and offering very good coverage and giving RL Obama some good versatility.
And there's more... there is also Shadow Abomasnow to consider, which seems to be all the rage so far in this early GBL season. It's both a little better and a little worse than regular Aboma. Sticking with Razor Leaf Abomashadow for the moment, new wins appear against Froslass, Ferrothorn, and Galvantula, though at the cost of giving up wins against Haunter and Hypno that non-Shadow Aboma gets. Digging a little deeper, while both regular and Shadow win against Cresselia, Mantine, Probopass, Tropius and others, regular Abomasnow gets out with more HP, often 20+ more, while Abomashadow doesn't escape with more remaining HP often at all, and even when it does, rarely for more than 5 or so more HP.
And likewise with Powder Snow. Here, you can see right away that the case for Abomashadow is a little shakier, as it shows one less win than normal PS Aboma, but once again there's more to see when you peel back the layers. Shadow gets unique wins over Lapras, Toxicroak, and Galarian Stunfisk, all big names to be sure. But it also loses to Dewgong, Hypno, Cherrim, and Mew, all of which non-Shadow Aboma can take out.
Personally, I still give the (slight) edge to non-Shadow Aboma in Great League, so don't fret if you don't have a good Abomashadow!
But there is STILL more. Because while Abomasnow tops out below 2400 CP, it is now even a potential option in Ultra League, beating most notable Grasses, Charmers, Dragons (Dragonite AND potentially both Giratinas), Ghosts (Gengar and suddenly relevant Drifblim), and of course Waters like Swampert, Empoleon, Blastoise, and Feraligatr thanks to Energy Ball. Not bad! Maxing a Abomashadow would be painful, but it is worth noting that doing so could net you Cresselia and Snorlax (but you give up Granbull and Empoleon). I'm not saying a maxed Aboma is something I would outright recommend for Ultra League, but there are many worse ideas.
So what's the verdict?
In Great League, while it has been a laughing stock many times over, Abomasnow may now get the last laugh. With either fast move, Energy Ball and the new Ice Weather Ball have taken Aboma from plodding and unintimindating to spammy and terriftying overnight. You have probably run into at least one in this young GBL season already. It won't be the last. Abomasnow is now here to stay. Good news if you haven't invested yet: you can run with a cheaper, non-Shadow one and still be just fine, IMO. Check the slight differences above, but either snow white or dirty snow Aboma work well.
Other Benefactors?
While only Abomasnow recieved Ice Weather Ball, there are many Pokémon that have Powder Snow and stand to benefit.

THROW A HEX ON THE WHOLE FAMILY

Yes, this 40-year-old white boy is throwing out a Puff Daddy (and The Notorious B.I.G. and Lil' Kim) lyrical reference... what of it? 😎
Powder Snow got buffed, but it's not the only fast move that did. Two moves recieved a straight buff to their energy generation, from 3.67 EPT to a simpler 4.0 EPT, and one of those, as you likely surmised by now, is long-forgotten Ghost move HEX. While still strictly inferior to well-known Ghost move Shadow Claw (which has the same energy generation but deals 50% more damage--3.0 rather than Hex's 2.0--per turn), this improvement at least makes Hex usable, now sporting the same stats as Fury Cutter and Spark. Not the greatest of moves, fair enough, but viable for anything that has Hex but cannot use Shadow Claw instead.
And even this small tweak is a boon to several Pokémon, propelling them up the ranks. Probably the biggest beneficiary is Drifblim. A standout star early in the now-ending Silph Arena Season 2, back then Blim relied on big Shadow Balls baited out with a still-useful-then Ominous Wind. Its non-Ghost move, Icy Wind, was buffed in another move update in December, but still mostly ignored until Ominous Wind was itself nerfed in yet ANOTHER move rebalancing in April. (Yeah, Niantic has been pretty rebalance-happy the last few months. 😓) Anyway, all that to say that despite the goings-on with its charge moves, Drifblim never really broke out fully. Hex was (and still is) its only viable fast move, and frankly, that held it back, with it losing several close matchups, just not quite being able to get over the hump and dying before it could let loose with its own winning charge moves.
No longer. With Hex now generating a bit more energy more quickly, Drifblim is rising again. As you would probably expect, it handles Psychics and Fighters and even other Ghosts (not named Haunter) quite capably, though that wasn't always the case... it used to lose to Jirachi and Alolan Marowak with the old Hex stats, but now beats both, and convincingly. It also adds Registeel (granted, the nerf Regi faces don't help, but still), Azumarill, and Ferrothorn to the win column. And again, all that with just a 0.33 boost in energy generation per turn. And Blim still handles Grasses and Swampert and even traditional Flying killer Melmetal as it did before, with each win obviously coming a bit easier (read as: with more remaining HP afterwards) than it did before. And it gets even better, as with very good PvP IVs, Drifblim can even emerge victorious over Skarmory, Galarian Stunfisk, Mantine, and Altaria.
The difference in Ultra League (yes, viable there too!) is a bit more subtle, as the only new win it really picks up against the core meta is Charizard, but as in Great League, it has more HP remaining in its wins, including about 50 more against Ferrothorn and as much as 90 more HP remaining against Cresselia.
So what's the verdict?
Drifblim was arguably better than people gave it credit for already, but the buff to Hex can lead to some HUGE new wins (especially Azu, Regi, and potentially even Altaria) in Great League and more consistency overall. Give it another look... Blim may surprise you, and at least early in the GBL season, your opponent as well!
Other Benefactors?
Not everything that has Hex stands to benefit, as most still have better fast moves, but there are a few dark horses....

AND UH... INFESTATION

Yeah, not even a catchy title for this one, because honestly, the ripples from the buff to INFESTATION are rather small. It got the same treatment as Hex (going from 3.67 EPT to 4.0 EPT, with the same 2.0 DPT), but there just aren't any particularly interesting Pokémon that actually want it, even in its improved state. The top ones that can even HAVE Infestation are Beedrill (wants Poison Jab), Tangrowth (definitely wants Vine Whip, which is strictly better), Cradily and Jumpluff (not since Bullet Seed was buffed!), and then you're into things like Muk and Drapion which I can't see ever choosing Infestation over their other fast moves. This is mostly just a boon to fringe options like Weezing and Garbodor and Swalot. At least that last one has SOME potential... wins over Fighters and Grasses and Darks and Charmers and tanky Psychics and even Azumarill all make you at least go "hmmmm". But truthfully, the buff to Infestation, while certainly welcome, isn't dragging new stuff to the top of the meta anytime soon.

LAND OF THE DEE (BUFF), HOME OF THE BRAVE (BIRDS)

And now probably the move that will cause the most ongoing debate, because while BRAVE BIRD got a huge damage buff (formerly 55 energy for 90 damage, and now 55 for a whopping 130), there is a steep penalty: a drop of three stages (nearly 50%) of the user's Defense stat. I talked about this some recently with the only other move to carry a -3 drop in the game so far: Victini's V-Create. If you can charge two and fire them in close succession, you can drastically mitigate at least the initial pain of so drastically crushing your Pokémon's bulk. But V-Create costs 40 energy... and Brave Bird costs 55, so that's going to be much harder to pull off.
Fortunately, there are a couple birds with fast moves that get there quickly. Honchkrow has Snarl, one of the fastest charging fast moves in the game. And perhaps even better, Honch also has the mighty Sky Attack, which can be sprung a bit earlier to hopefully bait a shield and leave you 10 energy closer to a Brave Bird than double charging BB allows. Sky Attack also obviously has no drawbacks as far as debuffing goes, so you can rely on it more fully and save BB for big moments. There was no reason to ever use Brave Bird before, and so Honchkrow instead relied on Dark Pulse for its second move, which was okay-ish but left Honch as a very fringey option. Now, though, it has the potential to fly quite high with double Flying moves. You might expect Honch to lose a matchup or two by shedding its one and only Dark charge move, but amazingly that's not the case at all... it actually holds or improves upon every win it got with Dark Pulse (meaning has the same HP or more left over at the end), and tacks on wins versus Whiscash, Ferrothorn, Umbreon, Zweilous, Tropius, Toxicroak, and Altaria. That's mighty impressive, and I feel very confident calling Brave Bird--even just the threat of Brave Bird--a clear improvement for Honchkrow in Great League.
And the improvement is even more striking in Ultra League, with Honchkrow again holding the (shaky) line established with Dark Pulse and just adding to it, with Poliwrath, Swampert, Typhlosion, Scizor, Escavalier, Feraligatr, Charizard, and Dragonite all now falling to Honch.
So what's the verdict?
Honchkrow just become meta before our eyes. It may take people a little while to catch on in Great League, but expect to see it start to emerge here and there and possibly be more common by the time Ultra rolls around. It's an expensive investment for Ultra, needing to be leveled into the upper 30s, but it's not a crazy idea to do so.
Other Benefactors?
Part of the reason Brave Bird works so well for Honch is that it has that second, threatening charge move (Sky Attack) that it can mostly rely on and reserve Brave Bird for the most opportune moment. Not all Pokémon have that option, so how does this affect them?
There is one more big bird that gets Brave Bird, but I want to break it down separately... right now!

BRAVIARY IN ACTION

I looked into Braviary shortly after Rufflet arrived in the game, but with pre-tweaked Brave Bird and slow charging Heat Wave as the only moves to go alongside the all-but-necessary Rock Slide, it just didn't do enough to deserve a full writeup. But now it gets CLOSE COMBAT, which makes it at least a little more intriguing should it ever arrive in small enough form to fit in Great League, gaining new wins over Galarian Stunfisk, Swampert, Munchlax, and potentially even Registeel.
But in Ultra League, it makes a few more inroads, with Close Combat bringing home new wins over Empoleon, Obstagoon, and Alolan Muk. Or you can bring the reworked BRAVE BIRD into the mix and reach for Altered Giratina, Typhlosion, and fellow buffed Pokémon Drifblim, while still holding on to Obstagoon and Empoleon (though A-Muk may slip away).
And while Braviary crosses the 3000 CP threshold and can do some work in Master League (and a bit more in ML Premier Cup), now preferring Rock Slide again, it has a rather niche role.
So what's the verdict?
Eh, I like the potential of Braviary in Great League and Master League more than the actual win/loss columns. A Flyer with moves that cover many of its toughest counters (Close Combat for Rocks and Ices) and counter fellow Flyers (Rock Slide, which doubles up on Ices and provides other good coverage) is going to matter at some point, just perhaps more in The Silph Arena than in GBL.
But in Ultra League, there may be something to it, especially in the projected Ultra League Premier Cup. Consider prepping one now to get ahead of the curve. Put those GBL Rufflet candies to good use!

PECK TO THE SIDES, TO THE FRONT, TO THE BACK

🎼 Well, look at old Jim, he's pecking on his back!
Peckin' to me is a lot of fun,
Well, you peck one, and I'll peck one, well, we'll all peck one!
You peck to the east, and then you peck to the west,
🎶 Then you peck, peck, peck 'til you've pecked your best.
Well, then okay, well, a-hey, hey,
We'll peck up, we'll peck up, we'll peck up the floor, Yeah!
Apologies to Cab Calloway, but you knew I'd have to have ONE butchered song in here!
Anyway, let's talk DRILL PECK. It's a very rare move, available on only two viable Pokémon in PvP: Zapdos, and as of the start of Season 3, Empoleon.
Zapdos first. I already wrote about Thunder Shock Zapdos to kick off my early review of Elite TM targets, so rather than rehashing all that, would encourage you to go read that again. I'll wait.
...
...
...you back? Okay, good. Because with Drill Peck now dealing five more damage (65 now, 60 previously) for the same low 40 energy cost, Zapdos is even a little bit better now. Shadow Zapdos in Great League picks up a new win against Medicham (the little bit of extra damage from Drill Peck finishing Cham off before it can reach a second Ice Punch). I didn't see any significant new wins in Ultra or Master (though feel free to point them out if you know of any!), but it does give Zapdos a little more elbow room in some of its wins. I wouldn't say this tweak is now the reason to suddenly start using Zapdos (the fact that you could get Thunder Shock in any league was that reason), but if you already planned to, the improvements to Drill Peck make Zappy a hair better overall.
The bigger story is perhaps Empoleon, you FINALLY gets a coverage move against the Fighters and Grasses that plague it. The best thing it had to combine with Hydro Cannon before was Flash Cannon, which just got nerfed a bit. Drill Peck gives it a new win over Aboma(powder)snow and brings Azumarill to well within the margin of error, though without Flash Cannon you DO lose out on Altaria. in Ultra League, Empie with Drill Peck maintains its current roles and adds wins against Dragonite and now Shadow Abomasnow, while in Master League, Empoleon basically stays where it was, since it usually only needs Hydro Cannon anyway. (Though the hard-to-sim coverage against Fighters is nice to have, so I'd still call this a gain.) Nothing awe-inspiring, but overall, this makes Empoleon a mostly better version of itself.
So what's the verdict?
This isn't a huge change, and that shows in the minutia in the win/loss changes. But it IS a straight upgrade for Zapdos, and gives Empoleon the best move it has had yet to pair with Hydro Cannon. While the loss to Altaria in GL is unfortunate, I think I still give it a thumbs up as the second move to roll with on Empoleon moving forward.
Other Benefactors?
Honestly, not really. Murkrow and Dodrio get Drill Peck, but they still don't really have any play. Zapdos and now Empoleon are the beginning and end of the Drill Peck book.

GOODNESS, GRACIOUS, GREAT BALLS OF... WATER?

So with stats (~125 Attack, 127 Defense, 113 HP) basically the same as Togekiss and overall comparable to things like Venusaur and Cherrim, it's not that Pelipper doesn't have what it takes to hang in there in Great League. The problem has always been the complete lack of any charge moves cheaper than Hurricane and its 65 energy requirement. Sure, Hydro Pump and Blizzard are awesome when they hit, and Wing Attack (3.5 Energy Per Turn) in particular generates energy fast enough to get there at some point, but Pump and Blizzard both cost 75 energy. What Pelipper has so desperately needed is a bait/spam move, and now it finally has it with Water WEATHER BALL. So while Pelipper has been quite pathetic to this point, with WWB, suddenly it doesn't look too shabby. With just Wing Attack and WWB alone (so no baits), it can eliminate Registeel, Mud Boys Swampert and Whiscash, Galarian Stunfisk, Shiftry, A-Wak, Haunter, and basically anything Fighting, a very good start. Bringing in Hurricane (still the best bet as the second move) you can add on things like Azumarill, Lapras, Tropius, and Cherrim, plus Mantine with good bulk IVs. Not the greatest Flying Water type ever--I'd still say, in Great League, that that title rests with Mantine itself)--but Pelipper is legit close to that... and Mantine doesn't usually get Registeel.
You also have the option of Water Gun rather than Wing Attack, losing 0.5 EPT but gaining 0.5 DPT and a steadier dose of Water-type damage, which is worse overall BUT does gain things like Probopass and a better showing against A-Marowak and Registeel while giving up Grasses, Lapras, and Azumarill. Like I said, it's worse, but it IS an option and may be better in certain limited formats like future Silph Arena Cups. For now, just something to keep in mind... towards the back.
So what's the verdict?
Wing Attack/Water Weather Ball/Hurricane Pelipper has some legit play, with some very good wins under its belt, uh, beak, from Mud Boys to Fighters to Ghosts to G-Fisk to Registeel and even some of the biggest of big name Grasses. It's sort of a mini-Mantine, one that may even be better on certain teams and/or in certain more-restricted-than-GBL formats. Recommend looking for a good Wingull and making a Pelipper out of it when you're able.

...AND ALL THE REST

TL;DR

Yes, as it says in the title, this is a comprehensive (read as: LONG) analysis article, but I know some people just want to skip to the end and get a summary. So before you ask, this is for you:
And that's a wrap, folks! I did quite a bit of analysis on all this over the last two days, and while this is an informed opinion, it is still just that: my opinion. Hopefully it helps, but take that for what it's worth!
Alright, I'll bow out now and let you get back to your day and your GBL matches. Thanks for sticking with me through this and other long articles I have written. I appreciate your time and attention, and sincerely hope this assists you in navigating these new GBL waters.
For more PvP tidbits, you can find me on Twitter for near-daily PvP analysis nuggets, or Patreon and its tie-in exclusive Discord servesecret lair. And please, feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll try to get back to you!
Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Thanks again for reading, and catch you next time!
submitted by JRE47 to TheSilphArena [link] [comments]

MLB Blitz DFS Breakdown + MLB Sports Betting Picks! (Saturday, September 5th, 2020)

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Please up arrow if you like our post! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday weekend! I didn’t get an article out yesterday and I apologize. I started looking at the slate and there were so many double header 7 innings games that I just gave up and focused on my FF draft I had that evening. But we have a big 12 game slate starting off at 6:05 pm central so let’s dive in and take a look at it!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
There are several inexpensive pitchers I like today so I’m going to hit on a few studs that you can mix in. All the high end guys have been up and down this year but every pitcher on the slate comes with risk. If I love a pitcher and I am looking at locking him in I will always let you know and today I don’t have anyone I’m locking in but mixing and matching with my favorite stacks.
LUCAS GIOLITO – Gio is on fire this year and the highest priced pitcher on the slate today. He is a -230 favorite so he is likely to get the “Win” which is +4 points on DK. KC has faced him several times and racked up 120 team Abs hitting only .167 with a 33% strikeout rate. Gio’s last 5 starts he has put up 20, 60, 43, 7, 24 and 27 DK points. We were all over him when he tossed his “no no” vs. PIT with 13 Ks. In his last 3 he has 8, 13 and 13 strikeouts giving up plenty of upside even if he does give up a few runs. KC is hardly a power house team ranking 28th in the last 10 game power rankings and 28th in last 14 runs per game.
GERRIT COLE – Cole hasn’t been at his best this year giving up 9 ERs over his last two starts and putting up only 9 and 15 DK points. However, this is Gerrit Cole and he is bound to bounce back strong. Prior to his last two starts he had around 20-25 DK points per start and he has massive strikeout upside. Even in his rough last few starts he has put up 7, 9, 10, 8 and 10 strikeouts. Tonight he gets to face a BAL team that has a 23% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and rank 20th in the last 10 game power rankings. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In 46 team Abs vs. Cole they are hitting a lowly .196 with a 24% strikeout rate. Cole still has an xFIP of 3.69 on the year and allowing a low .224 batting average. Definitely someone to mix in because that 30+ DK point game is coming.
KENTA MAEDA – Maeda gets to face the Tigers today and they have been decent this year at 17-19 and logging some big wins. Maeda has a massive 17.2% swinging strike rate which is 3rd best on the slate and ahead of Gerrit Cole. He does have a really low .200 BABIP which would indicate that regression is coming but his xFIP is sitting at only 2.80. He is allowing a 0.75 whip and .163 batting average. The Tigers have a 23.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and Maeda has put up 8, 7 and 12 strikeouts in his last 3 giving us a shot at a solid floor. He just faced DET on the road and went 6.0 with 3 ER and 8 strikeouts and now he gets to face them at home. Prior to that start he had 24 and 38 DK points outings combining for 13.0 innings, 2 ER and 19 strikeouts. Worst case I think you get 20 DK points and the win but he could go nuts and push 3-3.5x.
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD – When writing this they have two different starting pitchers for tonight. If Justus is starting I like him as a decent punt option at 7600. Prior to his last start at LAA where he got blasted he put up a solid 21, 15 and 29 DK points combing for 18.0 innings, 2 ER and 16 strikeouts. TEX is a pillow fight of a matchup ranking 25th in our last 10 game power rankings and 30th in most of the last 14 day game stats that we have. If Nick M. is starting just look elsewhere.
KRIS BUBIC – Don’t be alarmed when you see my ChiSox stack but Bubic just faced CHW and went 5.1 innings, 2 ER and 8 strikeouts for 19.2 DK points and that is 3x value against a freaking powerhouse of a team! I don’t think I’ll have any shares of him but it is worth throwing out there if you are looking for a low owned GPP dart. I can’t imagine many people are going to take a rookie pitcher vs. the ChiSox.
TREVOR CAHILL – Cahill has been up an down this year with his last 3 starts hitting 8.5 points @ ARI and then another vs. ARI at 24.2 DK points and the 12 points @ LAA. Let’s focus on his last two starts since they were both against the team he is facing today. On the road he only went 3.1 innings, 2 ER and 4 strikeouts and it said he was dealing with some joint inflammation, so he had to exit early. The HOME start (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. When he is priced at only 6600 if he can give you 24 DK points that is pushing 4x value. To give you another example do you think there is a greater chance of Cole hitting 40 DK points or Cahill hitting 24? You need the best bang for your buck! Now don’t leave 5,000 salary on the table and pivot down to Cahill from Cole that would just be stupid. ARI is ice cold in our rankings, 24th in the last 10 game power rankings and they are 29th or 30th in our last 14 team stats that we post on our sheets. Basically, it should be a soft matchup.
SETH LUGO – I was writing about Spencer Howard here at 5900 and then decided to remove him. He has a really high BABIP which should come down but these NYMs just rocked him on 8/14 and they are running hot right now. So I’m going down to my final pitcher and it just happens to be on the other side with Seth Lugo. Lugo is a gam at 5600 on the slate today but we have to be careful because I don’t know how many innings he will get. It looks like he had two starts on 8/25 and 8/30 and went 3.0 and 3.2 innings and only allowed 1 ER (combined) and had 12 strikeouts, Wow! He has a swinging strike rate this year of 17.8% which is #2 on the slate behind Giolito. He has an ERA of 2.12 and an xFIP of a slightly lower 2.06, 0.94 whip and allowing a .197 batting average. His K9 rate last year was 11.7 and this year it is up to 12.2. He is slightly better at home too! Last year his K9 rate went from 10.7 to 12.7, allowed batting average from .232 to .150 and xFIP of 3.98 down to 2.51 at HOME! He is a -160 favorite tonight but has a tough matchup vs. the red hot PHILLIES who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings. This is a risk/reward GPP play but these Phillie shave to cool off soon!

STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. KRIS BUBIC (21ST Bullpen) – I know this is a fantasy sports article but I’m crushing it betting White Sox, White Sox run line and parlaying them with other games. White Sox had a few low scoring games and slid back to 11th in the last 10 game power rankings but still rank 7th in run per game, 4th in team batting average, 6th in OBP+ISO and 5th in wRC+ across their last 14 games. Our model has this game at 7.0 to 3.7 so the White Sox are an easy stack coming in at 4580 for the top graded 5 man stack. You can get this stack cheap if you fade either Tim Anderson (5600) or Jose Abreu (5400). The 4580 includes both of them so it is do-able at that price point.
PIRATES VS. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (12th Bullpen) I know what you’re thinking… Holy shit Haze has lost his mind, he has the Pirates in a stack. Pirates ranks 21st in the last 10 game power rankings and they are a horrible 12-25 on the year. But this is a fun stack because you can fit two $10k+ pitchers with it. You can stack the 5 highest graded hitters for only 3380 per player. So let me show you some math. This 5 man stack will cost you 16,900 and then you can use around 20,000 for two stud pitchers and have around 13,100 left for the other 3 hitters. If you take a low end catcher for 2,100 that means you can pitch two 5,500 players to fill in the holes. That is a fun lineup because every likes picking studs from the top of the salary range with 2 stud pitchers. Then what if PIT happens to drop 5-7 runs?? So PIT has faced Desco 61 times and they are hitting .328 off him with a lower 20% strikeout rate. Desco in 21 innings has a 7.71 ERA this year with an xFIP of 5.99, a very low 6.0 K9 ratio (down from 9.0 last year) and allowing a 1.67 whip and .282 batting average. This should be like soft toss batting practice for the Pirates. I mean in his last 3 starts he has put up -7, 4.9 and -18 DK points. In those 3 starts he has combined for only 10.0 innings, 19 ERs and 19 strikeouts. OH SNAP! I just noticed his -18.1 Dk points was against this same PIT team, WOAH! He only last 2.0 innings and gave up 9 EARNED RUNS with 1 strikeout. Take a $1-$3 single entry and stack the PIT team. Josh Bell (3500) is 6 for 17 off Deco with a HR, Polanco (2900) is 6 for 19 with a HR.
SAN FRANCISCO VS. MAD BUM (25th Bullpen) – So once again I have different information as some sites are showing Mad Bum as the SP and some are showing Taylor Clarke. Mad Bum should be returning from the DL due to his back strain and facing his former team. 3 of his last 6 starts were negative DK points and his last two were -7 and -7.4 and he combined for 6.1 innings, 13 ERs and only 4 Ks. For his sake I hope that 3 week stint helps him turn things around. SFG rank 5th in our last 10 game power rankings mainly due to that massive run in Colo. I like the SFG stack even if Clarke is throwing. If it is Clarke he still has a 5.32 ERA and 5.56 xFIP and allowing a .265 batting average. The bullpen has an xFIP of 4.91 with a 1.57 whip and allowing a .266 average. STACK IS CHEAP coming in at only 3940 per player for the top 5 man stack. You can fit two stud pitchers in this stack and still have around 10k left for the 3 spots. I like to pivot down on the C position in the 2,000-2,500 range and then spend up at the other spots.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS. BRANDON BIELAK (24th Bullpen) I typically don’t stack the Angels but if they are facing Bielak I like it! I have another place showing Urquidy as the SP. Either way stack comes in at 4260 and they are 14th in our last 10 game power rankings and 11th in runs per game over the last 14 days. Mike Trout (6000) is on fire putting up almost 17 DK PPG over the last week and 12.6 over the last 14 days. If it is Bielak he has put up -8 and -11 DK points in his last two starts and those combined for a TOTAL of 2.0 innings, 10 ERs, 4 BBs and 2 strikeouts. Gulp!

CHEAP HITTERS UNDER 4000 ON DK TO FILL YOUR ROSTERS:
MICHAEL BRANTLEY (3500) – Getting hot putting up 10, 21, 16 and 25 DK poins in his last 3 starts.
GIO URSHELA (3600) – 14, 8, 14 and 14 in his last 4 starts.
JEFF MCNEIL (2500) – Almost min priced and put up 10, 9, 13 and 12 in 4 of his last 5.
LOURDES GUIRREL (3900) – He has been up and down but 4, 17, 19, 7 and 20 in his last 5 is pushing 5x value.

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
Today I am going to do something new and add some of the sports betting picks that I like on the MLB slate. Now you can parlay them, bet the money line or bet the run line that is your decision but here is what I am looking at for the day.
TOP TIER BETTING PICKS:
PADRES (+100) – Ranking 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings they send Chris Paddack to the mound who has 42.2 innings with a 3.37 xFIP. Oakland is a little rusty after the covid break they had and they send Mike Fiers to the mound who has an xFIP of 6.01 and allowing a .282 batting average. Padres as even money and they are “red hot” right now. They have 43 team Abs hitting .326 off him with a micro-low 14% strikeout rate. Oakland has the better bullpen but our model has this at Padres winning 6.3 to 3.4 of Oakland.
WHITE SOX (-230 / RL -160) – This is a game that you likely have to mix into a parlay. White Sox are smashing everyone right now and they roll out their ace pitcher in Lucas Giolito vs. the Royals and their 28th ranked last 10 game power ranking. Our model has this at 6.9 to 3.7. Gio has 120 team Abs vs. KC and only allowing a .167 batting average and a solid 33% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starters for KC with 10+ Abs are batting under .200 off Giolito. Lopez is 2 for 10, Mondesi is 1 for 17, O’Hearn is 2 for 13, Soler is 1 for 13 and Whit is 4 for 23.
DODGERS (-185 / RL ??) – Colorado has been cold with their 18-20 record and 6-14 across their last 20 games. They rank dead last in our last 10 game power rankings. On the road they have a wRC+ of 73.5 and vs. RHP a 78.0 so I’m not worried about them blowing up. Dodgers are 4th in our last 10 game power rankings, 3rd in runs scored per game, 3rd in OBP+ISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Dodgers also have the #1 bullpen compared to the 28th of the Rockies. Our model has this game 6.1 to 4.0. Dodgers at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 101.8 to 134.8 and vs. RHP they sit at 128.6 so they are solid all around. I’m not really worried about any LAD starter they put out but Tony Gonsolin isn’t too shabby with a 0.51 ERA, 0.79 whip and .153 batting average. However, advanced stats show his xFIP of 4.11 and his low BABIP of .214 is going to come up. Even if he gives up a few runs the bullpen will shut this game down before Colorado can run away with anything. LAD line is too low!
SAN FRANCISCO (-135) – Giants skyrocketed in the rankings after that Colorado outburst! They are 5th in our last 10 game power rankings and rank top 4 in our last 14 team stats. They are facing the Diamondbacks who rank 24th in our last 10 game power rankings and bottom 2 in our last 14 game team stats. Offensive advantage for SFG. Both bullpens are 25th and 26th so not great. Cahill has been decent with a 2.51 ERA but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 4.50 pitcher. His low BABIP of .167 is going to cause that xFIP to rise. The HOME start vs. ARI (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. 5 of the projected hitters for ARI are batting under .200 on the year. Giants first 5 projected hitters are batting .299, .277, .292, .295 and .341.

SECOND TIER BETTING PICKS: These are more “lean” plays that I like.
PIRATES (+130) – For the record our model has CIN winning this game which is in line with Vegas. However, I disagree with it after doing some research. CIN is 27th in our L10 game power rankings and they are only 27th in last 14 runs per game and holding a high 25% strikeout rate. They face Williams who has allowed a 5.50 ERA but his BABIP of .340 indicates he has been “unlucky” and his ERA should be closer to 4.66. He has always been better at HOME (where is he is tonight) and so far his home ERA is 1.64 with a 3.83 xFIP vs. his road 7.33 RA and 5.05 xFIP. PIT ranks 21st in our L10 game power rankings and 17th in runs per game over the last 14 days so not great but slightly higher than CIN. CIN has a slightly better bullpen coming in at 12th vs. 20th of PIT. However, Desclafani has been torched recently with his last 3 starts combing for only 10.0 innings while allowing 18 ERs and 10 walks. He just faced PIT on 8/13 and went 2.0 innings and got blasted for 9 ERs in that span putting up -18.1 Dk points. 90% of the Vegas money is on CIN but I’m taking PIT +130 as this is more of a coin flip game in my opinion with a slight lean to PIT and getting plus money.
NATIONALS / BRAVES OVER 9.5 RUNS – Vegas has this game as ATL -260 which is incredibly high in my opinion. We have ATL winning 6.8 to 5.7 and putting up 12.5 total runs. Nationals at +230 isn’t a terrible bet but you have to parlay it with the over because Fedde is going to give up 4-5 ERs in this game so if the Nats win IT WILL GO OVER! Fedde can’t shut down ATL but I’m not laying -260 on them against a hot Nationals team. Both teams are in our “red hot” category and rank 2nd and 14th in our last 14 runs per game. Both teams are 5th and 7th in our team batting average last 14 days. I understand Max Fried (L) is a good pitcher and on the outside you see a 1.60 ERA and 1.00 whip allowing a .199 batting average. However, his xFIP is 3.55 indicated he is still a good pitcher but not a 1.60 ERA pitcher. So my question is how do the Nationals do vs. LHP? They have a wRC+ that jumps from 94.1 to 129.6 vs. LHP so that is good, they have also been better on the road this year going from 78.8 at home to 120.0 in wRC+. When facing LHP their team batting average jumps from .251 to .304 an their wOBA from .318 to .372 and the OBP+ISO stat also goes up 100 points. Fedde for the Nationals has given up 10 ER combined in his last 2 starts which combined for 11 innings with 5 strikeouts. GAME TOTAL OVER 9.5 RUNS and I also like a small parlay of NATIONALS +230 with the OVER 9.5.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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[Guide] Gold to Champion: How I've done it, and how you can too

So a little bit about myself.
I'm by no means a pro, or even close to it. A while back, I was stuck at Gold after around 1900 hours (far too many for this level. especially seeing the latest rank/hours poll). I wanted to get better at the game, but wasn't sure how.
When I asked higher ranked players, they mostly told me I just needed to practice, but never told me how. I just knew what I was doing was not working out. As well as using my time wrong, I used horrible settings and hardware, that further slowed my improvement to close to nonexistent. Eventually I figured out what I needed to do, with the help of a great coach that showed me the right way. Hit C1 at ~2300 hours and C3 at 2800 hours. So now I'm hoping to give back to the community, and hopefully help some players that are stuck like I was.
I know there are many guides around, but the advantage of this one, is that I still remember how it was like to be stuck in Gold, and the things I was missing that might seem obvious to many of you, but weren't to me, and are probably not obvious to bronze/silvegold players. While this forum tends to attract higher ranked players, I know there are many here who could use the help.
This guide is for people that are stuck at bronze-diamond for a long time, or beginners, and not sure how to improve, but want to, and are willing to put in the time and effort to become the best they can.
This guide is focused on improving the way you use your RL time, thus improving your rate of improvement, rather than telling you to work on anecdotal mistakes you make, and specific things you need to improve.
Some things I list here might be subjective, or perhaps wrong. I might've missed something. Let me know if I have. Criticism is welcome, since I consider this guide a work in progress. Keep in mind, there might be other ways to improve. Some things might work for some, some might not, some might work for others. Some might be faster learners, and some might need to work harder for the same improvement.
Anyway, this is what worked out for me, and hopefully will help and won't get me flamed to death.
 

Practice/Training:

* Freeplay: Once you master skills, you need to incorporate them into your gameplay. Start going for these new-skill shots during matches and in freeplay. Just run around the map with the ball, and try to hit difficult shots, read wall bounces, clear shots, imagine you're passing to your team mate who's waiting somewhere, etc.

 

Positioning, Rotation & Passing

You can't learn this only by reading/watching guides. For this, you also need the next section (watching pros play).
 

Watch Pros Play & Your Own Replays:

Can do this while you eat or whatever.
Squishy is great. JohnnyBoi has some nice matches and commentary. Lots of pros on youtube/twitch as well.
This is important in order for you to start developing intuition for proper mechanics and positioning (your mind learns just by watching). For example, during my bronze-gold days, I used to play with ballcam only. I noticed pros take ballcam off when dribbling for example, and on other situations. Since I've seen many hours of pros play by then, I had no problem incorporating it into my game play. I just knew what to do, without even thinking about it. By watching pros play you'd also learn about positioning, rotation, passing & waiting\positioning to receive a pass etc.
Watch your own replays and compare to pros, or have a higher ranked coach analyse your replays with you.
 

1v1s:

Even if your main focus is 2s or 3s, play & watch some 1s as well, to develop 1s skills like when to challenge, shadowing, and how to attack 1 on 1, etc.
 

Challenge yourself and never stop practicing:

Challenge yourself, even in-game. Go for challenging/difficult shots/passes/clears/saves etc, and don't hesitate or wait for the ball to drop to an easier position (unless no one is challenging it, then you can just control the ball and slow down the game). For example, if there's a clear to be made that you usually struggle with, go for it. Even if you whiff, with enough repetitions, eventually you'll improve. As long as you do this only in ranked (and not in a tournament), everything is fine. Worst case, you'll lose a game.
When waiting between games, go to freeplay or custom training. After scoring (before the replay starts) practice kuxir twists, half flips, try to hit the crossbar flying upside down / sideways, or land with 4 wheels on the ceiling or any other mechanic that you're currently working on.
 

Video Settings:

Competitive Video settings (for an explanation - bottom of this guide) should be used for optimal play, instead of putting everything on max settings. These are the settings most pros use. The more FPS, the less input lag, even if your monitor is only 60Hz. You don't need all those fancy effects like dynamic shadows (that can reduce FPS by 50-100), or ones that are actively hindering your gameplay, like blinding rays of light. If you want RL to look beautiful, it comes with a cost to gameplay. If you're focused on improving, there's no reason to use other settings, even if your PC can overpower the game. These settings are for optimal competitive play. More FPS is an objective advantage.
 

Camera Settings:

Camera settings are subjective, but there are still some that would statistically work better than others. Use any pro camera settings list as a reference, and pick one that you like for yourself. If you're completely unsure what your preferences are, you could try choosing ones that are somewhat close to the pros average. Check out these links: - Liquipedia Pros Camera List - Prosettings Pros Camera List - Prosettings Pros Camera Guide
 

Monitor:

Get a 144Hz-240Hz monitor. Optimal (for RL) monitor features - 240Hz, 24", 1ms response time, TN panel, 1080p. Getting a higher resolution monitor, like 2k-4k, might be nice for other games/browsing/work, but for RL it makes your PC work harder, providing less FPS. Most pros use the BenQ XL2540 monitor (240Hz, 24", 1ms response time, TN panel, 1080p). Make sure your PC can support needed fps (more than 144 for 144Hz, more than 240 for 240Hz), with competitive settings, without overheating, otherwise there's no use getting the monitor. More FPS is an objective advantage.
 

Controller:

Controller is down to personal preference. I do encourage you to experiment and see what works best for you (might take you a few days to get used to a new controller). Having said that, this is my personal, anecdotal experience: I used to use XBOX360, XBOX One, Razer Wildcat controllers. XBOX controllers always felt more comfortable to me. After one week of getting used to DS4 (was a horrible week...) though, it just felt like this game was made with a DS controller in mind. The left stick control felt a lot smoother, and the small triggers felt better. Most pros use the DS4. It might not be a causative relation, as many pros used to play SARPBC (PS exclusive), but it does have some objective advantages, like double the polling rate (250Hz for DS4, compared to 125Hz of the XBOX360/One, and 100Hz of the DS3). Personally, I would recommend using a DS4 for RL, but I acknowledge the fact it is personal preference.
 

Input Shape:

Some controllers, like the DS3, come with a square input shape. However DS4, XBOX360 & XBOX One, have circle input shape. This means, the further you are from the axes, the more your movement is restricted. For example, having your stick exactly diagonally, will only give you square(0.5)~=0.707 of the x and y values possible.
To enable the full range of motion, you pretty much have 2 options that I'm aware of: - Square Input Shape: Up to 04:37 is an explanation about deadzone. 04:37 onwards is an explanation about square input shape, and gives simple instructions for a steam-built-in solution. Recent video by Rocket Science says the steam solution adds 1ms of input lag. So I would suggest using DS4Windows (to enable DS4 without Steam) and RL Durazno to square your input shape. RLDurazno enables you to see the effect of your transformation, thus enabling you to choose the perfect fit for your controller. - Increase Sensitivity: You can do this ingame (steering and aerial sensitivity). Some pros don't use square, like Squishy. Though he does use increased stick sensitivity 1.3. And since 0.707*1.3=0.92, he should have a close enough effect).
If you are aware of these options, and understand them but still choose to stay without square, that's fine as well. Some players tried both options, and find square input map is too sensitive for them resulting in less accuracy. If you do decide to make the change, expect a few days to 2-3 weeks of getting used to it. Use Durazno to make sure your controller gives you the full range of motion possible.
 

Keybinds:

As CBTactics wrote:
The important part is that you should not be hindered by your controls. Certain mechanics require being able to use all or some combination of boost, jump, and powerslide. Bad controls will prohibit these movements. Viable controls will allow them.
These keybinds are pretty intuitive and viable in my opinion (watch this for an explanation):
All default except:
  • Left BumpeL1 - Airroll + Powerslide.
  • Right BumpeR1 - Boost.
  • Square - Ballcam toggle.
Obviously, any other set of binds can work just as well if not better (or worse).
There are RLCS winners that use claw grip, many pros use default settings, Rizzo uses his left stick to drive forward/backwards, there are pros that use keyboard (Yukeo).
Find what works out best for you, making sure you can easily reach boost/jump/powerslide simultaneously, and don't be afraid of experimenting.
 

Car:

This is a great watch regarding the subject. It is pretty old by now, and some of the information in it is outdated. For example all cars are now using one of the standardized presets for handling and hitbox introduced in the Anniversary Update (Read more about it here). The argument in the video still stands though. Car choice is subjective. Some cars might work better for some, and worse for others. Some cars might statistically work better for more players. There might be a good reason to choose the popular cars, and there might not. Even with same hitbox, visuals have an affect on your game play, and how your mind perceives the information on the screen. You could use any car you're feeling comfortable with. Take in account that each car induces a slightly different kind of playstyle. If you're looking for a general guideline, I would say that statistically, Octane, Batmobile and Dominus are best. There might be a causation relation there, and it might just be only correlation. I would say its a mix of both, and your best bet is to probably go with one of these 3, unless you're seeing incredible results with other cars. But still you're free to choose for yourself.
 

Have fun!

submitted by Ungoliant0 to RocketLeague [link] [comments]

My thoughts after a short break from SC2 to try something "new".

I played a lot of Counterstrike after doing SC1+BW in 1999-2003. Then did't play much game due to RL stuff, but started with WoL and fell in love with competitive gaming again. After years of SC2 I just reached a day early December where I just did not feel any joy or wanting to log into SC2. I was tired of the maps, the matchups, and the feeling of never achieving anything (diamond for 2 years straight, and way back into masters was not getting shorter).
Started doing som CS GO and quickly saw I was way better than many of the silver guys (still thats pretty bad), and I won a few competition games and even carrying my team. I got quickly rewarded skins and crates and started to learn smoke tactics and other stuff.
Comparing the two games its just crazy to see how easily Valve gets you to use money, just for skins etc. I have probably spent more money on CS GO than I have ever don on SC2, yet I have played SC2 extremely much more. The random drop at the end of a round regardless of how you perform makes you want to play more, playing is like participating in the lottery. Something similar should absolutely be implemented in SC2, not only getting stuff (portraits) for wins.
The easiness of doing a "clan match" in CS GO is just mind blowing compared to SC2. Normally I have to spend 4-5 days to get in contact with 1-3 teams and then another 3-4 days to find a proper date which suit everyone. In CS GO its just invite to lobby and search for a game. Sure you have teamgames in SC2, but those maps are horrible and the game are not balanced for 4v4 - 1v1 clanmatches is what we want and there should be an auto feature for it.
HOWEVER SC2 community is so mature and nice compared to what other stuff I have encountered. Almost everyone speak English well enough for you to understand, and the random people that talk trash are few. In CS GO you have russians not even trying to communicate, 11y olds cheating and braging about it on mic, people telling you how they did your mother even before the warmup is done. I mean the CS GO community is toxic compared to SC2. Then you have the SC2 "drama" compared to the CS GO drama. While we argue about if one girl did get into GM by her self OR if she got help you have CS GO Pro's getting caught for aimbot, cheats, throwing pro games to win high placed bets on betting sites etc. And it almost never gets any reaction from teams/events etc. Compared to what we are used ton in SC2 where players gets kicked off a team for MUCH less (which is a good thing).
I did watch Team Liquids first ever CS GO team play their first pro match vs the famous Cloud 9 team. The casters were (in SC2 standards) so unprofessional. With viewer numbers most community casters in SC2 (and some events) only can dream about they talked about killing hookers and kids dying while laughing. It was embarrassing to say the least.
Sorry for the long ramble, but you should feel lucky for such a nice community, but still put pressure on blizzard to make SC2 into the potential money maker e-sport (for casuals as well) it could be.
TLDR; SC2 does not really give you a feeling of success / joy of playing compared to CS GO with random drops, more leagues etc. SC2 community is so mature and nice compared to CS GO. The pro scene in SC2 is acting way more pro than the CS GO scene.
submitted by balleklorin to starcraft [link] [comments]

After four years of therapy....I still wonder if my mother is a narcissist. Is this abuse, or am I just too sensitive, broken, and needy?

Right then.....here goes nothing.
:)
TRIGGER WARNING:
[!!!---The following post contains descriptions of emotional, physical, and verbal abuse, as well as emotional incest, and self-harming behavior. After a few people wrote that the experiences described below triggered them, I got concerned because that's the last thing I want for anyone healing and recovering out there.---!!!]
INTRODUCTION
After lurking here on the forum for over a year now, I finally signed up for my very first Reddit account. I thank each and everyone of you, who has shared their experiences here. There were many days and nights where coming here reading your stories and kind replies left me sobbing with relief, just because maybe I am not alone........maybe........I am not bad, and maybe it was not my fault.........
INTENTION
The reason why I am writing all of this down is because I want to:
1.) ..... heal.
2.) ......hold myself accountable for self-harming behaviors I still use at times and stop these.
3.) ......validate my perception and experiences once and for all, removing all remaining doubts.
4.) ......make sure my own narcissistic tendencies are being replaced with compassionate behavior.
BACKGROUND
To dive right in, I am a 33 year old married female, who works as a college level lecturer (foreign languages) and suspects her mother is a narcissist, and her stepfather (my mother's 3rd husband) an enabling father. I am originally from Western Europe, but moved to the USA for my husband years ago. I have been very low contact with both "parents" since February 2012. The only contact between us right now is via email and only on birthdays and Christmas. I have a brother who is 8 years older, and he is the currently the golden child. We switched roles somewhere around the time he turned 30 and got a prestigious job. At the moment, I am the scapegoat/lost child/black sheep. My enabling stepfather has two children. One of them, my stepbrother (scapegoat/black sheep) has been no contact with his father and my mother for over 15 years. Him and I are quite close and have validated each other's experiences. I am lucky to have him.
ABUSE
My therapist believes there has been severe neglect, emotional abuse, emotional incest, as well as physical abuse in my childhood all the way up until early adulthood. Most days.....I do believe him and my own perception.....however, at the end of the day I am a human being and social mammal.............programmed to crave and need connection with my family of origin.........and I am grieving the fact I never had a mother, and will most likely never have one. Meaning, I doubt myself at times because it is "easier" to believe I did something bad to deserve this, that explains all of this shit, than to feel and let in that my own mother may have never really loved and wanted me. Ouch. Yeah......
----- In fact, I am STILL learning what her behavior has done, and how I can make the best of my life now. Some days are good, others suicidal thoughts pop up, head and belly filled with toxic shame, and like I am an utter failure that needs to make herself go away...............and I wish......... I could just LET GO......... of the pain....... the anger........ the sadness......... the grief......... more anger.........more sadness.....the hopelessness........... the wishing maybe she can change.......the 'maybe she loves me and it's just another difficult mom-daughter relationship'............. the emptiness that bubbles up whenever I see Hallmark Mother's Day cards............. or how friends gather with their families around holidays................... I wish I could just STOP feeling anything about it at all................ It often feels like being on the outside, looking in on the world and others............. I also wonder if others can see the brokenness of me somehow........... Some days I even worry my husband only puts up with me because he feels responsible for me, and is backed into a corner. These are false beliefs, and I am working on that in therapy.
SELF-HARM
There is a history of a variety of self-harming behavior I used in the past to numb the pain, to punish myself, or to somehow have control over life in a twisted way. Behaviors I have used included:
1.) -- Slapping myself. With a flat palm on the cheek. Usually when I felt like I "messed up something", or "had been a lazy." My mother used to often call me "lazy sow" in a rage. Other situations that trigger me include "feeling like I don't clean my home well enough" or "lacking real success in life." The last time I did this was just a few weeks ago, and my goal is to stop all self-abuse now. For good.
2.) -- Using a brush to hit my head. Same triggers usually. Feeling ashamed of myself or lazy or like a failure resulted in hitting the brush so hard until my scalp bled at times. I also used my fists to punch myself in the stomach, but luckily that stopped years ago and haven't used a brush or fists in a long time.
3.) -- Onset Bulimia and Anorexia. Starting in my senior year of high school and escalating in college, I had a few years where I'd binge-eat and then make myself throw it up. Combined with phases where I'd withhold food to punish myself for "getting fat."
4.)-- Cognitive Self-Punitive Behaviors. I am incredibly hard on myself, and have not considered having children yet as I am worried about how much of me is like my mother. I do not want to pass this generational "gift" on. My maternal grandmother was a cold and shitty person, and I believe my grandpa was an enabling father as well. I tend to have ridiculously high expectations of myself. I am often cruel and impatient, self-criticizing myself with thoughts.
5.) -- Substance abuse (Alcohol). About a year ago I decided to get 100% sober from alcohol. After one relapse 140 days into my first attempt, I started over and am now over 300 days sober. The plan is to stay that way forever. Since I have used alcohol starting around age 17/18 to numb it all out, learning how to feel and what to do with these feelings has been a ride......... to say the least.....and it has been so so worth it. I recommend sobriety (with the right support alongside you) to anyone.
RECOVERY TOOLS
---------
Here are the tools I have used so far to help me recover:
1.) Bibliotherapy
Lots of reading, including classics such as "Will I ever be good enough?" by McBride and "Children of the self-absorbed", "Mothers who can't love" etc.
2.) Therapy.
It will soon be four years of bi-weekly therapy with a licensed clinical counselor, who has been a lifeline...to say the least.
3.) Talking to people I trust.
This was and still is a trial/error experience. Sometimes I chose the wrong people to confide in. Other times, opening up was a healing experience, and the compassion of others has been transforming.
4.) The internet. Below are some of the resources that helped, and still help me the most/
There is so much support out there, and I am lucky. -- Truly lucky.
COMMENT
Therapy is not something everyone has access to, and I am aware this is a luxury service ......never take that for granted. It has saved my life. My friends, as mentioned, are supportive as can be. The only problem is.........I feel most people have "normal-enough" mothers....... and while they are compassionate, I am often left wondering: "If it was all in my head. If I was just born too sensitive. If I am being ungrateful. If I was that difficult of a child, and my mother did her best. The poor thing. IF ONLY....... I had been more decisive, more hard-working, more normal, and found a career path right after high school to prevent mom from feeling so angry at me......and so on....and so forth.
-- Below are a few "highlights" of what I believe to be maternal narcissism. Any feedback is greatly appreciated, and I apologize for the extremely long post in advance. I will go back and edit the post so that each experience is clearly labeled, in case someone does not wish to read about a specific kind of abuse.
EXPERIENCES
1.) Emotional Neglect / Lack of Mirroring
I have no memories of my mother ever looking at me with true love and compassion. In fact, her eyes sometimes get that "crazy look" I only ever saw in one other person in my entire life, namely my abusive ex boyfriend. There are no nice photos of us two, with the typical "mother gazing lovingly at baby or toddler" or whatnot. In fact, we have barely any nice photos of me from early childhood. The ONLY portrait in which I smile a bit, and that was clearly supposed to be a happy memory, is from one single photo shoot my kindergarten organized when I was 3 years old.
2.) Verbal / Emotional Abuse
Raging. Lots of it. I remember it was often over something other moms just did, and shockingly other moms seemed to LIKE and WANT to do them. Like...... picking up her 15 year old teenager from the airport after a school trip........helping their teenagers visit colleges to plan a careecollege path out.......picking/dropping off their kids every now and then. I always took care of it by myself, using the bus or walking or biking.
3.) Physical Abuse
-- She would force me into a closed shower as a toddler and punish me with cold water. Fully dressed. "Because I had thrown a tantrum over wanting to eat cereal for dinner and she could not stop me from throwing a tantrum and was worried I'd hurt myself by slamming my head onto the floor."
--- Spanking. At times she pulled me off of the toilet and slapped me on my naked butt. I had actually hidden on the toilet one time, hoping that would help me escape the spanking. But it was a mistake in hindsight as it turns out being hit hurts less with pants on. Lesson learned. Thanks, mom.
4.) Emotional Incest
-- Other times she would share pornographical details such as: "Your stepfather makes me come first with his hands and fingers, and then he makes me come again when we have regular sex. And my first husband always said I was sooo great in bed. He even tried to sleep with me one last time after we got divorced, and handed the keys for the house over, but I said no."
*** I found that information VERY disturbing as I was in my early teens/teens. My therapist later explained this is called "emotional incest". ***
--- My mother would also ask me on vacation (I was 14 years old) to "leave the hotel room to go do something because they needed privacy, meaning have sex." So on our "lovely" family vacation, where we shared one hotel room, I had to pack up a book and sit alone by the indoor swimming pool in the middle of the Canadian Rockies, waiting for stepdad and mom to be done having sex. Back then we did not have cellphones yet like we do today, so I remember sitting all alone at the cold and bleak indoor pool, wondering if mom and dad are done having sex yet, so I can get back into my hotel room.
----- When I did get back, both pretended nothing had happened. My mother was grinning disgustingly, and had a red glow on her face. She pretended like nothing happened. I am pretty sure when I am 51 years old I will be able to moderate my sexual desires, so that I won't have to send a teenager all alone to sit and wait in the hotel lobby. Or....have the decency to get my own room. Heck, I would have had the decency to NOT ask my child to leave the room at any age, regardless of my sexual needs. Children come before sexual needs. Period. Anyone can wait to have sex to protect a child's integrity, if they want to.
4.) EMOTIONAL ABUSE / DEHUMANIZATION
-- But that wasn't even the worst of it. During my time with them (12 weeks or so) they forbid me to unpack my suitcases. My mother informed me I would not be given a guest room. I had to sleep on the fold-up futon couch in the open living room, right by the kitchen. My suitcases had to remain right next to the main entrance by the door. She even placed a carpet over them because: "she was worried what the neighbors thought, and it looked so ugly in the hallway with these suitcases."
--- I was not allowed (this is a lifelong pattern) to use the washing machine. The showebathroom was patrolled by my mother every.single.time I used it because: "I did not know how to clean up stains from the water off of the appliances well enough." One time I wanted to make "mommy happy" - I was 27 when I stayed with them back then -- and I cleaned the bathroom like there was no tomorrow. Hours. On my knees. Scrubbing.
---- My mother walks in, looks around, scoffs, points at the surface of a plastic box on a shelf and says: "Most people don't see fingerprints like those right there. You did not see them either, but I do." That was that. No "Thank you". No "Good job". That was also a lifelong pattern. But it took me until I was 27 to realize how bad this must have been for a young child growing up. During that time she also complained and claimed often that: "You did not know how to open up the fridge the right way, and left disgusting fingerprints all over the surface of my designer kitchen." I remember being worried about leaving fingerprints, walking about her house on eggshells.
----- One day I got REALLY sick with tonsilitis, and asked her if I could use the car to get meds from the pharmacy. Her response was cold and she just said: "It's winter and the car would need to warm up for 20 minutes. And you're not allowed to drive the car by yourself so I'd have to come with." Again, I was 27 years old at that point. Had successfully worked and studied abroad. My host family in the USA who did not even know me well gave me their car all the time. Parents of friends let me drive their cars all the time. In my entire life I have never had an accident, speeding or parking ticket. I know I am a good-enough driver.
-------Since I needed the meds, I grabbed my bike in -12 Celsius winter weather and rode it to the pharmacy. My mother must have gotten worried about what the neighbors might think. Two days later I needed more meds as my tonsilitis was getting worse. This time, my mother left the house without saying a word. She came back an hour later, walked into the house, with a martyr / self-righteous look on her face, grinning and throwing the meds onto my bed/couch saying: "Happy now?!"
---------A few days before that she had raged over nothing, stormed away and yelled at me: "Nothing is ever good enough for little madame." I was in the middle of the worst fever infection I can remember. That night, I wanted to commit suicide for the first time. Things finally got so bad (my mother would frequently position herself in the middle of the living room, at center of the house, and cry and complain how: "she had the right to not always have to be strong, too." This is also a lifelong behavior she had. Growing up my brother would be assigned the role (he still has that role and is 41 now) to be a semi-husband for her. He'd be allowed to soothe her, softly pat her back when she was crying. I was sent to my room. My brother would often say: "I know how to handle this. You go to your room."
THE FINAL ESCAPE
----- But back to 2011/2012.......While I stayed with my parents I ended up worrying my suicidal ideation was turning into me actually wanting to carry out a plan, and asked my aunt if I could come visit them for a few days to get a break from my parents. My aunt agreed right away. She has often had periods in her life where she did not talk to my mother, her sister. My aunt understands and believes me. When I arrived at her house, I felt like I had PTSD. I was too scared to use their kitchen, and expected my aunt and uncle to dislike me soon as well. My mother dumped the rest of my belongings I hadn't been able to take with me on the train to my aunt's city in big grey garbage bags a few weeks later. Without saying a word. She just dumped them in front of my aunt's garage. Did not even ask my aunt or uncle if that day was a good day to dump my things on their property. It was raining, and my mother didn't even know if my aunt/uncle were home or gone for days.
During that time, my stepfather once said to my mother he "was scared of her, and did not dare to criticize or question her ever, as it always came back tenfold later on." I found that to be quite the impressive and accurate description of her narcissism, but since he is the enabler, he will never understand that himself.
Some of those things had been in an IKEA carry-bag I had used, but I guess that was "too good" for her daughter. She removed it all and there they were....all of my things in garbage bags. Thanks, mom. She then acted like NOTHING happened. My stepfather sent me this shit email saying: "I hope staying with us wasn't too stressful." They have always called me "too sensitive" so that put the blame yet again on me finding too many things too often too stressful.
My mother did NOT care how/where I lived after I walked out of their house. She was probably just happy to be able to have sex all day wherever she wanted and to have gotten rid of her child yet again. My therapist once translated that into the movement you make with your two palms "Job well done." I found that helpful as that was EXACTLY how it felt like. She rid herself of me, and that was what she wants.
I had to move through two temporary apartments to complete an internship first, and finally move to the city where I got a full-time job. From the day of my graduation (December 12th to scoring that good full-time job it took me only 4 months. Given the job market at the time it was remarkable, yet my parents never even acknowledged how hard I worked to get my career going. She just asked things like: "How is your job? Is it full-time? I hope your students aren't as bad as those I just read about in a book the other day. That sounds like such an awful job, teaching."
When my replies started getting flat and non-deep (I used to be an open book for her, and anyone, actually, gladly sharing each and every feeling, worry, thought) she started to complain. Then, one day, she just declared: "This is too hard for me. I will stop writing you now since you never share anything about yourself anymore." What MOTHER willingly declares she no longer wants to be in contact with her only daughter? Sure, if I had had a history of stealing money from them, taking drugs in their home, assaulting them and whatnot.....I would understand why a parent stops enabling their child so the child gets help. But....I was a good-enough child and young adult by all means.
The little girl in me panicked when my mother wrote that, and I replied that I did not want us to have no contact. Emails continued for a bit after that, but my mother became more and more weird, and outwardly aggressive in them. Finally, she attacked me one more time directly, but I had started therapy by then and felt more confident...... and I replied that: "We can rebuild a new relationship based on trust, but I will no longer respond to passive aggressive emails from you, mother."
She pouted, ignored my email for a few days (she checks her emails daily, and most of the time reads them all aloud to my stepfather, who then writes replies together with her) and wrote back that: "She could not promise that she would not relapse." Meaning, relapse = being passive-aggressive. Since that day, 2 years ago, it's been only "Dear friends and family" kind of mass emails from them. She suddenly did start to send me a card for my birthday, which she has NEVER done all those years I was in undergrad etc. That just started suddenly 4 years ago out of nowhere. My therapist said she does that because it helps the narc maintain the illusion of "a good parent". These cards usually disturb me, and I throw them out the same day as it triggers me.
MORE EXAMPLES
--- There is more. I bet like for ALL of you there is so much more......and I am sorry you had to experience that. You have my sincere compassion.
1.) Other highlights worth mentioning include that when I lived abroad and dated an abusive man, I ended up being attacked my him. It was a classical domestic violence situation, and I had to go to court to state my case and get a protection order. The entire time my mother did not call me. Not even once. She just sent an email saying "This was all too hard for her, and I should contact that psychology professor in the USA I once had." Thanks....mother. I also understand now why I used to be so attracted to abusive, controlling, narc men. It is called "repetition compulsion" and it felt....familiar. I was used to that family dynamic. It felt comfortable even when it was dangerous. I was 23 years old at that time of my DV experience, and far away from my home country. One phone call from my own mother would have been nice. Oh....and you'd think when I came back home after the domestic violence ordeal my own mother would have been happy to have her only daughter safe and sound in her arms?
Negative. Nopety nope nope. My mother complained that the airport I flew into (40 hours trip back home from Australia) was too far from home. (3 hours driving). Fair enough. I took a train to a town 30 minutes from our house after flying/doing layovers for 40 hours. My mother still complained that "the parking there is so bad and we will have a hard time finding a parking spot." My parents are avid travelers and have been, and still are, traveling the world. Certainly finding parking in a city close to where we lived for 30 years would not be too challenging.
When she saw me walking through the train station all she said was: "I didn't know you had a red coat." I was then told my mother had decided to sleep in my old bedroom, and I was given a mattress on the floor in an empty former workroom........ that didn't even have lights on the ceiling. She did place 3 tiny flowers in a little vase on the sink in that room. Not sure if I was supposed to be all grateful about that, but she made it a point to point out that she did that for me. How nice of you, dear mommy. Then, she continued making it all about her. She would tell me about how hard her marriage with my biological father was, and I remember I ended up comforting HER as she started crying when she talked about that. Not sure why my domestic violence experience was the clue for her to make it yet again about her. It felt wrong. She also said weird things like: "Sent the bill for those shoes to THAT guy." And then she smirked. I asked her what she meant, and she made it clear she wanted me to contact my abusive ex I had just gotten a restraining order against, and make him pay for my new shoes. (He had cut up all of my shoes and clothes with scissors when I wanted to leave him, a traumatic experience, to say the least) Sure mom, let me text him real quick, I bet he has his credit card ready to go! Madness.
2.) When I was 11 or 12 years old, she would make me take a public bus for over an hour in the middle of winter to get my sick guinea pigs to the vet. I had to go in for 3 consecutive appointments as they had some sort of lice that required several regular injections. The 3rd time, for some reason, she was able to drive me. And....when we got into the hallway after paying the fee she raged at me again claiming: "He charged us more because I came with you. Next time you go alone again."
3.) Financial abuse. She gifted my brother (GC) all of her savings a few years ago. I do not believe I will ever see a single cent of that money, and am now making my peace with the fact that I will never ever receive even the tiniest bit of financial help from them.
4.) My enabling stepfather is its own bag of shit. He would often leave his flat palm on my butt when we hugged or posed for photos, especially as I got older. It made me feel extremely uncomfortable. My therapist said this was NOT ok and that normal fathers do not do that. I still question it sometimes and worry that I am being too critical of my stepfather. My stepfather would also always pull me REALLY tight when we did any sort of ballroom dancing. It disgusted me.
5.) When my brother was 3 years old he broke his leg playing outside. He had to be in the hospital, both legs in a cast and tied to a pole to keep them in a certain angle, which left him stuck in bed 24/7. My mother decided this was a good time to go on vacation and she flew by airplane to a resort by the beach for a few days. We had no family in town at that time, I was not born yet. My aunt and neighbors said they felt so sorry for my brother and went to visit him out of pity. My aunt driving 4 hours to get to the hospital. Who leaves a toddler with a broken leg in a hospital and flies to another country to go relax on the beach? I wonder if that is almost sociopathic actually.
6.) She often lied and gaslighted. Like she would go through my clothes and throw away something she thought was "too old, too slutty" or whatnot and without telling me it was gone. I would then frantically look for it. She would try and lie to me long enough for the garbage truck to get there. One time, I went down to the street on a hunch and gut feeling....and there it was. My favorite t-shirt I had gotten as a gift from a woman who helped me escape my abusive ex boyfriend. In the trash bin. By the road. My mother had literally walked it all the way down from our house to that trash bin while I was at the dentist. Then lied to me. That...reminded me of what my abusive ex had done. He too....had placed my clothes (all cut up) in a garbage bin by the road. I had to dig through all of that garbage to get them back out. When I told my therapist about that, it suddenly clicked and I made the connection....my mother doing the same as my abuser, just a few weeks apart from each other.
---- Another time .......she hid something else that belonged to me, and told me: "to just sit down and eat and she misplaces things all the time. It would surely show up again." I was looking for that thing frantically, thinking I had lost my mind....it was there on the table, the second I came back from the using the restroom it was gone.......but I had another hunch, and pretended to go to the bathroom upstairs a few minutes later, but instead quietly sneaking into her bedroom.....and there is was! The thing I was looking for was HIDDEN inside her travel bag on her bed, underneath a pile of her clothes. Thanks, mommy. We never talked about it. I took that thing back, and she never asked. I needed them to provide me with a roof over my head until I could be financially independent and leave.
7.) Grandiose self-esteem. She has this grandiose idea of her own importance. When my brother had a baby, my niece, she bragged to EVERYONE how she, my mother the physical therapist, had "secretly treated her granddaughter and now her granddaughter was standing up wayyyy better." There is a whole story to that where my sister-in-law caught my mother giving my granddaughter physical therapy treatment, and when asked what my mother was doing, my mother lied. My sister-in-law had never given consent that her toddler was to be treated by my mother.
8.) Triangulation. When, for the first and last time ever, my mother Skyped with my then boyfriend and now husband, the first thing she told him was that: "Your girlfriend is an alcoholic and she drinks a bottle a day!" Then she continued dancing manically with my stepfather in front of the camera, as they had just gotten home from one of their nights out. Pretending to be the cool relaxed dancing queen. My now husband said he found that comment VERY sickening. While I did drink too much in college and for many years after that, I was never an alcoholic and especially not during that time. It's not the nicest thing to say about your own daughter the very first time you meet her new boyfriend. During that time she would try to sabotage my relationship with him, telling me "I don't like his beard. His gifts are cheap. You should marry an engineer back home instead."
--- She triangulated and I once caught her (overhearing through a door) crying to my golden child brother how I "was not applying to many jobs at all." (lie, that's all I did all day long) My parents both claimed that physical therapy was a profession that was going to disappear soon. I was told at age 16 that "Since you're always sick, you better just become a teacher. They get so much vacation." My mother also liked to compare us kids. One time, she asked my brother and me to "compare who cost more." (My brother is 8 years older). And she would always say things like "Your brother, the get-things-done guy." Or "Your brother is very good at getting practical things done. You...well you are good for emotional things."
This went as far as getting my stepfather on board to manipulate my career choice. I did NOT want to be a teacher. But since nobody cared to visit colleges with me or do anything to help me choose a career, I studied education. I believed them. I was sick quite often growing up. Asthma, a skin rash. Colds. She later sold her practice to one of her employees. It STILL is a very successful practice, and I am not sure I am finished grieving the loss of "what could have been" there yet. I do my best at teaching, but am not naturally cut out for it. It's a hard job. Funnily enough, I have had only two sick days in all my years teaching and since going low contact with my parents, I have been the healthiest version of myself ever. Asthma, gone. Skin rash, gone. Frequent colds, gone.
9.) Blameshifting. She blamed me for outrageous things as a child claiming for example: "You did not want to learn Dutch" which is her mother tongue. Now...I am a teacher. I can assure you that IF a mother spends a little bit of time and WANTS to teach her child her own mother tongue...she will. Kids are like sponges. They love learning. I cannot believe she blamed a baby/toddlesmall child for her disinterest in passing on her own language to me.
10.) Medical Neglect. One time when I was 8 years old, I had a VERY bad and seriously dangerous asthma attack. We had been visiting my aunt who lived 4 hours away. She has cats and we did not know my blanket was covered in hair, so at 1am I was barely able to breathe. It felt like breathing through a straw. My mother...raged...and raged....and raged....she packed me into to backseat.....and drove me all those 4 hours back to our house. No ER visit. Nothing. I remember thinking the entire drive: "I might die. I can't breathe." That was the only incident where my enabling stepfather ALMOST stood up for me. Almost. I remember feeling so ashamed for years for getting sick, and making mommy angry.
11.) Neglect of basic parenting obligations. In school I'd miss lots of things and she would brag and joke about "not knowing in which grade her daughter was" in front of me to her patients. I missed a 3rd grade reading competition because my own mother didn't know what I was up to at school. I missed a 5th grade trip because she didn't know and I was 11 and had forgotten to set an alarm clock. I lied when my teacher called, saying I was ill because I was too ashamed for not being able to manage my own commitments well enough. 11. Years. old. Jesus.
12.) Delusions. She thinks the husbands of her friends fancy her and are into her. She also thinks my aunt secretly wishes she had a husband like my stepfather. When I told my aunt, she almost vomited as she cannot stand my stepfather.
13.) My stepfather once looked me in the eye when I was 23 years old and said: "You would have NEVER filled your mothers shoes." Meaning, I would have never been good enough to take over her physical therapy practice. It was my dream to do that, but they manipulated me into not doing that.
14.) She is overly concerned with what others think about her, mostly strangers and neighbors. One time while I was staying with my parents and applying for jobs, they left for some gala New Year's Eve event at a castle in our capital, and I stayed back because I had the work ethics of "applying for a job is my full-time job, so no going out until I have a job. Period." Around midnight I wondered if the lonely older lady next door was home, too. To my surprise, she was! So I grabbed a bottle of champagne, and walked over. Her and I had a lovely New Year's Eve. She told me in tears how her own daughter, and only child, had died in a car accident and so ever since she preferred to just be home alone on holidays.
--- When my parents came back from the extravagant party a few days later, and I told them about having been with the neighbor, my mother freaked out and got this aggressive smirk and hissed: "Ohh, so I bet you told her allllll about how bad we are to you. Bad parents, right?!!" ..............How on earth she thought of THAT paranoid stuff instead of maybe ....I don't know.....being proud of having a compassionate adult daughter who cares about lonely elderly neighbors.............Another time she hissed at me: "I'd kick you out but what would the neighbors think?"
Although, she DID eventually end up writing me a letter, walking away crying when I wanted to discuss a rational solution, and actually kicked me out with a deadline even. "You need to leave by March 1st." Had it not been for my aunt, i'd have been literally homeless at age 26/27. My own mother could not even wait 3-4 months until I had my full-time job, and that after she hadn't seen me in two years.
15.) When I graduated from high school, just like she had done with my brother, my mother informed me "I no longer needed a key to HER house since I had no more business to be done there." I had just moved into my dorm room, and had kept the house key as I had boxes full of stuff left in our attic. Dorm rooms = very small. She expected me to 100% live in my dorm room, which had the kitchen next to my bed, as in literally RIGHT next to it. "Fair enough.....suck it up, you're a student. Be humble." I thought back then. That's also when my self-harming escalated and my alcohol consume as well. The next day I was babysitting the children of one of my mother's employees for whom I had been babysitting for 4 years. My mother showed up unannounced at the door of that family's house, and raged at me in front of their 5 year old, accusing me of lying to her about not having the key with me. I did NOT have the key with me, and had left it in my dorm room to go work that night as a babysitter, my mind occupied with college about to begin, moving, work etc. I had planned to drop it off at her house, aka my childhood home for 18 years, the next day.
After she left, the 5-year old boy looked up at me and asked: "Who was that?" And I replied: "Oh, you know my mother. That was my mother." He shook his head and replied: "Didn't look like her." And went off to go play in his room. What struck me about that was his innate child-wisdom. My mother gets that crazy look in her eyes and on her face when she rages. She really did NOT look like her at all that night. It was her rage-face. That little boy could put into words what I could not even allow myself to feel until age 29 in therapy.
For the record, even my mother's cleaning lady had a key to our house. Whenever my parents were gone on one of their world trips for weeks on end, and I needed to access my belongings that did not fit into my dorm room, I had to call her up and make sure she could open and close the door for me. It was humiliating. I cried a lot during those visits. The house we grew up in was the place I spent so much time at. I was often from age 14/15 onward left alone for weekends when my parents went away to travel.
RECENT PAST to PRESENT DAY
Last time I saw them, she started a huge fight with my stepfather. I was blamed for it. "Me being back there" had put that much pressure on them, according to them. He had been stonewalling/silent treating her for days. That was his MO all my life, by the way. She would often cry to me about wanting a 3rd divorce. So I kinda had a hard time "bonding with stepdaddy" over all that, as you can imagine. Then I was blamed for having a bad relationship with him. He also told me to my face that "meeting your mother put me back ten years in life since you were so young, and my own children already older." Thanks...dad..... = I am a burden that ruined his life. Instead of being grateful to be given two stepkids to love and guide and cherish....
That day, both in their 60's, she grabbed one of his favorite glass statues and threatened to: "smash it on the ground if he did not talk to her." I remember thinking: "Wow....here I am aged 26/27 overhearing this...what went on when I was....3....4....5...years old I don't actively remember?
---------
There is so much more...but it is time to take a hot bubble bath, continue reading a book about boundaries someone just recommended to me, and then work tomorrow morning...........Oh boy...................if you made it this far..............let me pay you a full hour of what my counselor charges..........haha oh well............it did feel healing and cathartic to write it out, even if nobody ever reads it. In future posts I will focus on sharing healing resources and giving others support.
THANK YOU from the bottom of my heart if you made it this far.
xoxoxoxox
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How to Win at Sports Betting  Betting Odds Explained Become a Better Sports Bettor and Have a Winning Mindset Steelers vs Texans Predictions and Odds (December 25) What is Reverse Line Movement and Public Betting Percentages?  Sports Betting 102 The Craziest Moments in Sports History - YouTube

MLB Run Line Betting Strategy. A lot of bettors overlook the difficulty of MLB Run Line Betting. Many bettors will get in the mindset that the team they think will win the game will probably do so by at least 2 runs, leading them to bet the run line over the money line because of the higher odds. Sports bettors might feel they have an edge on a book if they think its lines aren't accurate. Even money: Odds that are considered 50-50. You put up $1 to win $1. i noticed when betting the spread people use the term rl...what does that stand for... and bol A sports bet, historically confirmed by a physical ticket, but still applied to online bets. Tie (see also Draw, Push) A bet in which no money is lost nor won because there wasn’t a positive outcome for the purposes of the bet. Tip. A betting prediction provided by someone with perceived knowledge of the event/competitors. Tipster Sports Betting Glossary There are many words and phrases used in sports betting that may not make sense until you understand what they mean. To help you with that, we have compiled the following glossary of sports betting terms as a useful reference.

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How to Win at Sports Betting Betting Odds Explained

Become a Better Sports Bettor and Have a Winning Mindset: In the latest episode of our Sports Betting Tips series for the recreational sports bettor from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas our ... In the latest episode of our “Sports Betting 101” series for the recreational sports bettor from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas host Kelly Stewart talks with sports betting experts ... Sports Betting 101: Top Beginners Mistakes in Betting the NFL (NFL Betting Tips) - Duration: 4:51. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 21,003 views 4:51 Craziest Moments in sports history this video is NOT including any injuries or tragedies. Get Your SportzCases here! - http://SportzCases.com?aff=258 Promo c... In the latest episode of our Sports Betting 102 series for the recreational sports bettor from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas our team sports betting experts explain reverse line movement ...

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